The energy crisis has made weather watchers of us all

THERE was a time when for many of you this column would have been the very first thing you read each Saturday (and maybe it still is).

The weather would have topped the news bulletins rather than the slot at the end. It was, after all, a matter of life and death.

Prior to the Industrial Revolution and the advent of fossil fuels, the world was reliant on so-called “weatherbased economics”. The seasons dictated what we could eat, where we could live, even when we could marry. An Economist article cites the research of a historian called Ann Kussmaul who found that even marriage patterns were shaped by the seasons. It was only when the harvest was complete and the lambing was over that couples could contemplate getting hitched.

The proliferation of rural almanacs (which started from the 15th century and were soon outselling the Bible by offering forecasts of dubious accuracy) also demonstrates the extent to which the weather dominated people’s lives.

For good or ill, technology has allowed humans in the developed world to live almost independently of the seasons. Even if we still loved to discuss its vagaries, the weather simply meant less. But now, as Western economies wean themselves off Russian gas and weather-dependent renewable energy dominates, financiers and policy makers are suddenly glued to the long-range forecasts. Lives will depend on it.

Fortunately, despite all the downpours, temperatures this autumn have been benign. Even though a period of high pressure looming in early December will make things chillier, if temperatures hover at the monthly average, 2022 could still be the UK’S warmest year on record.

The Met Office’s current long-term forecast, which extends as far as February, says the chance of an exceptionally cold winter remains low. But a risk, none the less. More updates as they come but, swaddled in blankets and wiping condensation off windows, we are all weather watchers now.*