Energy costs forecast to take more lives than invasion

MORE people will die in Europe this winter owing to Vladimir Putin’s “energy weapon” than have perished on the battlefield in his war in Ukraine, according to an analysis.

The Economist modelled the effect of soaring electricity prices on deaths during winter and concluded that the current cost of energy will likely lead to an extra 147,000 mortalities if it is a typical winter.

In a particularly harsh winter that could rise to 185,000, but even if it is a mild winter the figure would still be 79,000.

It estimated battlefield deaths in the war so far as around 60,000, up to 30,000 each for Russia and Ukraine.

The statistical model included all the EU countries along with Britain, Norway and Switzerland.

Before the war Russia supplied between 40 and 50 per cent of natural gas imported by the EU.

Residential gas and electricity prices have surged as a result. This winter, temperatures are expected not to be extreme either way, compared with recent decades, and it is also expected to be a typical flu season.

The model found that, if weather is average, a 10 per cent increase in electricity prices is linked to a rise in deaths of 0.6 per cent.

The model for the effects of high energy costs did not include Ukraine.

It noted that, due to Russian attacks on infrastructure, Ukraine would suffer more extra civilian deaths than any of the countries in the model.